Hormuz Strait "locks up" helium—Global chip supply chain crisis "on the verge"

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is quietly turning an energy crisis into a systemic shock for the semiconductor supply chain.

According to the latest research report released by Deutsche Bank on March 23, the interruption in Qatar's helium supply is pushing global chip manufacturing hubs such as South Korea and Japan towards a potential production crisis. Spot prices of helium have doubled since the outbreak of the Middle East crisis. Although no major semiconductor company has reported production disruptions yet, South Korean chip manufacturers' inventories are estimated to last about six months, but this buffer is shrinking rapidly.

Deutsche Bank strategist Perry Kojodjojo pointed out that Iran's attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City have caused "widespread damage," prompting Qatar to declare force majeure on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and its byproducts, including helium. Shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz have all but come to a standstill.

The Deutsche Bank report emphasizes that if the conflict persists, the Asian technology industry will face a triple impact: pressure on economic growth, narrowing trade surpluses, and sell-offs in the stock market. The report also notes that this presents significant downside risk for North Asian currencies.

Helium: From Party Balloons to the "Irreplaceable" Material in Chip Manufacturing

Helium is commonly associated with party balloons in public perception, but its industrial value goes far beyond that. According to Deutsche Bank, helium is a key raw material for semiconductor manufacturing, accounting for 21% of global helium demand. It is used to create an ultra-clean inert environment during chip manufacturing, and currently has no substitutes.

Global helium supply is highly concentrated. According to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) cited by Deutsche Bank, global helium production mainly relies on the United States (44%) and Qatar (34%), while Russia's contribution is expected to drop to around 9% by 2025 due to inadequate investment and the impact of sanctions. Although the United States is the largest producer, most of its output is consumed domestically. This makes Qatar the key hub for helium supply to the Asian semiconductor industry.

Asia's major chip economies are highly dependent on Qatar: 65% of South Korea's helium imports and between 28% and 33% of Japan's come from Qatar.

Damage to Ras Laffan, Supply Recovery Remains Distant

Deutsche Bank’s report notes that the severity of this crisis lies not only in the supply interruption itself but also in the complexity of recovery. Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City is one of the world’s most important helium production bases and has sustained "widespread damage," meaning that resuming production is far more than a simple restart—it will be a lengthy reconstruction project.

At the same time, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, normalization of the supply chain will lag significantly behind the end of the conflict. A typical shipment of helium from Qatar to Asia takes 30 to 45 days, and the supply lines are already under strain.

On the demand side, global helium demand was already growing at an annual rate of 5% to 7%. With the expansion of AI-related manufacturing, this growth rate could approach high single digits by 2030. The supply-demand imbalance is being sharply amplified by the current crisis.

Triple Impact: Growth, Trade, and Capital Markets

Deutsche Bank’s report quantifies the potential impact of the helium supply interruption on Asian economies from three dimensions.

On the growth front, the electronics industry is the core pillar of South Korea's economy. In 2025, the electronics industry will account for about 60% and 70% of GDP in South Korea and Taiwan, respectively. At the same time, global AI spending is expected to reach $2.52 trillion in 2026 (a 44% year-on-year increase), with the top hyperscale cloud companies collectively budgeting about $700 billion in AI capital expenditure, 75% of which will go to infrastructure construction. If chip supply is impeded, this massive AI investment plan will face direct impact, and South Korea will bear the brunt.

On the trade front, in 2025 electronics products are expected to account for about 40% of total Asian exports on average. Net electronics exports are an important source of trade surplus for South Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore. Deutsche Bank warns that production slowdowns will compress these surpluses, making these economies more vulnerable to global risks and potentially triggering currency depreciation—the 2022 performance of the won serves as a pertinent example.

On the capital markets front, the electronics sector accounts for about 41% of the MSCI Asia Index, with South Korea and Taiwan making up the largest weights. As of February 2026, foreign ownership in Taiwan was about 47%, and about 34.8% in South Korea, with both markets having recorded a combined net outflow of around $26 billion so far this month. Deutsche Bank believes that should helium shortages trigger industry-wide production interruptions, the risk of further foreign capital outflows from Asian markets will rise significantly, exerting heavy pressure on regional market performance.

Deutsche Bank’s report ultimately highlights that these risks converge on the foreign exchange market. Narrowing trade surpluses, continued foreign capital outflow, and downward revisions of economic growth expectations will collectively put downward pressure on North Asian currencies such as the won and TWD. Deutsche Bank characterizes this helium supply crisis as a "brewing semiconductor shock," warning that the market should not confine its assessment of the impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade to merely the energy sector—its far-reaching consequences for the global technology supply chain may be the more worrisome long-term risk for investors.