Jiang Muyang: Gold Rebounds After Halting Decline, C-4 Rebound Begins – Gold and Silver Trend and Trading Suggestions

　　Gold Trend Analysis:

On March 24, yesterday (March 23), international gold staged an extreme "deep V" movement. It opened under pressure and moved downwards, plunging to $4,098/oz during the session to reach a new stage low. Afterwards, it rebounded, climbing to a high of $4,513. During the US session, stimulated by geopolitical news reversal, gold quickly rebounded, and by the close, it fell back to oscillate around $4,380, forming a long lower shadow bearish candle on the daily chart. This marks a short-term end to the one-sided plunge, entering an oversold technical recovery phase. In terms of the wave structure, this aligns with wave C-4. After C-4 correction ends, the final wave C-5 decline unfolds, completing the C-wave downward structure.

　　On the news side, bearish factors: The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance continues to exert pressure, with the market now betting that there will be only one rate cut this year, pushed to year-end. US Treasury yields remain high, the opportunity cost of holding gold is elevated, and combined with concentrated profit-taking, this suppresses gold’s rebound space. Bullish factors: Ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, with the US postponing strike plans but Iran denying dialogue, mean risk-aversion sentiment hasn’t fully dissipated. Low-level central bank gold purchases and bottom-fishing funds entering the market provide short-term support. During the day, focus on fluctuations in US Treasury yields and the latest geopolitical developments, as any sudden news can directly break the current oscillating pattern.

　　Technically, on the daily chart, after a series of heavy falls, gold has explored the bottom and rebounded. The RSI indicator is near the oversold zone and is being corrected. However, the 5- and 10-day moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and rebounds have consistently been capped by short-term moving average resistance. The overall trend remains weak, with no clear reversal signal yet. On the four-hour chart, gold is holding above the key support range of $4,320-4,350, showing a short-term rebound structure. The area of $4,450-4,480 is a dense resistance zone, also acting as the golden ratio retracement resistance for this wave’s drop. A break above this region is needed to open up further rebound space; if $4,320 support is broken, a second test of the lows towards the $4,250 support area will be triggered. Overall, today gold remains mainly in a range-bound recovery mode, with intensified long-short battles. Strategy-wise, trade around key support and resistance, selling high and buying low.

　　Operation Suggestions: (For reference only)

　　1: Buy in batches on pullbacks to the $4,300-4,320 range, set a stop loss at $4,268, with targets at $4,385-4,400-4,450. Short positions to be determined during the session.

　　Silver Trend Analysis:

　　Yesterday (March 23), international silver staged a unilateral plunge. It opened under pressure and quickly declined, at one point falling as much as 10% with a session low at $60.97/oz. It then rebounded to a session high of $70.76; during the US session, the decline halted and stabilized, with silver oscillating near $69 before closing, forming a long-legged bullish doji on the daily chart. After this short-term extreme drop, silver entered the oversold range, and today is mainly about technical recovery. On the daily chart: Silver has fallen sharply through multiple moving average supports. Both the 5- and 10-day moving averages are aligned bearishly, the Bollinger Bands have opened downwards, and the price is running close to the lower band, with the weak trend unaltered.

　　On the four-hour chart: After bottoming out, silver is showing a minor rebound structure, holding above the key support zone at $65.5, which is critical for bulls’ defense today. The zone above at $70-71 is a dense resistance region, also serving as the retracement resistance for the current downward wave, and the short-term moving average resistance zone; only a break above this area can open space for further rebounds toward testing near $74.5. If $65.5 support is lost, weakness will persist and silver will likely retest the $62-63 region.

　　Silver Operation Suggestions: (For reference only)

　　1: Buy in batches on pullbacks near $66.5-65.8, stop loss at $65.0, target $68.5-69.5. If $70 is broken, positions can be held to look for $71.5. Control position size strictly and do not chase momentum buys.

Editor: Chen Ping