TTF gas: LNG jolt marks the close of surplus period – Rabobank

Rabobank Revises LNG Market Outlook Amid Gulf Disruptions

Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura from Rabobank report that the recent Ras Laffan strike and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz have brought the global LNG surplus to an abrupt end, resulting in a rapid adjustment in TTF gas prices. Their updated projections place the TTF price at €61/MWh for the second quarter of 2026, with an average of €50/MWh for the full year and €42/MWh for 2027, as European and Asian buyers vie for a limited supply of LNG cargoes.

European Gas Market Faces Supply Shortfall

The escalation of conflict in the Gulf region has led to a major reevaluation of short-term LNG supply and price forecasts. In their previous analysis, Rabobank had already factored in a Strait of Hormuz closure through early April, after Iranian actions halted most maritime activity, nearly stopping tanker traffic and disrupting about 20% of global LNG shipments.

Since then, conditions have worsened considerably, prompting another upward revision of supply and price forecasts to account for a significant, long-term reduction in capacity. The bank now anticipates the Strait of Hormuz will remain largely inaccessible until late April, with LNG supply disruptions expected to persist well beyond that period.

Looking ahead, Rabobank estimates that total LNG supply in 2026 will reach approximately 443 million tons, barely above the 2025 figure of 442 million tons. New LNG projects in the United States will not be sufficient to compensate for ongoing outages in the Middle East and North Africa, with Egypt projected to continue as a net importer through 2026. Even with only moderate growth in LNG demand, the market is set to experience a supply deficit.

Should the Strait of Hormuz reopen in late April, it is unlikely that energy shipments will return to normal before July or August, due to the time required to restore supply chains and ramp up production. The prospect of returning to pre-conflict LNG flows has been eliminated following attacks on Qatari infrastructure.

Rabobank has increased its TTF gas price forecast for the second quarter to €61/MWh, with expectations for the third and fourth quarters at €50/MWh and €48/MWh, respectively. The ongoing supply gap and the anticipated gradual lifting of restrictions later in the year suggest that prices will remain highest in the second quarter. With both European and Asian markets competing for scarce LNG cargoes, whichever region acts first will likely influence the other's market response.

(This report was produced with assistance from artificial intelligence and subsequently reviewed by an editor.)