Before the market opens on Monday, the world enters the range of the cannons

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

Before the global markets opened on Monday, a piece of news broke.

Iran fired two ballistic missiles at US and UK Indian Ocean bases 2,500 miles away. Although neither missile hit the target (one failed during flight, the other was reportedly intercepted by a US SM-3), this demonstrates that Iran now possesses longer-range missiles, bringing Europe within striking distance.

First, 2,500 miles—the political significance of this range may even outweigh its military implications, putting global markets within the reach of artillery. Trump is trying every means to lower oil prices, while every move by Iran is driving oil prices higher. This is a substantial escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, already beyond Trump’s control—which means Iran not only has longer-range weapons but its mindset has changed, and restraint is no longer considered necessary. Once the world accepts the fact that "Iran has crossed the line," future security, diplomatic, and military responses will be rewritten in light of this new reality. Even though this particular launch was inaccurate and lacked reliability, the strategic impact has already taken place.

Second, judging from Friday’s market close: the market is already on the brink of losing control. Without positive news over the weekend, Monday’s opening would be marked by extreme volatility—and now, negative news has arrived instead.

- Gold and the US stock market not only closed at daily lows but also set new lows since the outbreak of the Iran war;

- The yield on the 10-year US Treasury touched 4.4% (not far from the 4.5% warning line), and Brent crude settled at $112 (close to the $120 economic suicide line).

Bitcoin saw a minor decline on Saturday. Although the drop wasn’t significant, the direction is noteworthy. Currently, the real danger is not any single asset breaking down, but increasingly trading a "dangerous" combination: high oil prices, high interest rates, low growth, and low tolerance for error.

Third, according to our latest survey (still ongoing), investor sentiment remains extreme:

·Gold: 26% bullish, 61% bearish, 13% neutral;

·Crude oil: 70% bullish, 19% bearish, 10% neutral;

·US stocks: 17% bullish, 76% bearish, 6% neutral.

People are still moving in the same direction, and at this time, risks are two-sided.