‘Look for Exit Point,’ Says Investor About Bitcoin (BTC)

Geopolitical turmoil has done little to shake Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – in fact, since the outbreak of the Iran war, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has largely held steady. But according to one investor, that resilience shouldn’t be mistaken for strength.

Sagar Agarwal argues that Bitcoin’s current price action remains “largely speculative.” As geopolitical tensions begin to stabilize or resolve, he expects sentiment to shift – potentially paving the way for a sharp correction, with Bitcoin sliding back toward the $60,000 level.

The logic behind Agarwal’s view is fairly straightforward: Bitcoin tends to behave as a risk-on asset, meaning that in a war-driven environment – typically associated with risk-off sentiment – it would not be expected to show resilience. That disconnect becomes more notable given that gold, the traditional risk-off asset, has moved significantly lower over the same period.

One counterargument could be that gold had already priced in the elevated risk premium. However, Agarwal thinks that this explanation doesn’t fully hold up when you look at broader market behavior. Equity markets declined, while 10-year Treasury yields have climbed by more than 10%, rising from 3.945% on February 27 to near 4.37% on March 20. If the risks tied to the war had already been factored into financial models, these kinds of market moves would be difficult to justify.

“As a result,” says Agarwal, “if and when this war is over, BTC will most likely witness a strong correction.”

Additionally, Agarwal argues that the recent weak payroll numbers appear driven largely by structural and external factors – immigration enforcement and tariff-related disruptions – rather than a broad economic slowdown. Meanwhile, JOLTS data and other labor indicators show that the market remains resilient, with openings near pre-pandemic highs. With this in mind, the Federal Reserve would likely view monetary policy as already appropriate, with no pressing need to lower rates.

Moreover, ongoing uncertainty around the Iran conflict and its potential impact on inflation adds to the Fed’s worries. If the conflict lasts longer than expected, inflation could rise through at least the first half of 2026.

Since interest rates influence the returns investors can get elsewhere, and those returns affect the cost of holding assets that don’t generate income, Agarwal believes BTC is likely just as vulnerable – or even more so – than it was at the start of the crypto winter in October 2025.

As a result, Agarwal has assigned a ‘strong sell’ rating for BTC with a long-term price target of $30,000. That figure sits 56% below current levels.

Copyright © 2026, TipRanks. All rights reserved.