Can the price of gold still rise by 20%? Gold is not only priced in US dollars

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新浪财经2026/03/17 08:34

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By:新浪财经

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Although international gold prices have softened recently, UBS analysts expect that with the combined effects of updated risk assessments, changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policies, improvements in US inflation, and strong market demand,

the international gold price may rise to $6,200/oz by the end of the year, representing an increase of more than 20% compared to the current price.

UBS analysts stated that

this year, the international gold price may rise to $5,900~6,200/oz

. Gold serves more as a hedge against the broad impacts of conflict rather than as a direct response to the threat of war. Gold is primarily used to guard against risks stemming from uncertainties such as currency depreciation, increasing government fiscal deficits, and a slowdown in global economic growth—all of which may be triggered by geopolitical conflicts. The longer the Middle East war continues, the greater the risk of the US experiencing negative economic impacts, which is likely to increase the demand for gold as a store of value.

From a longer-term perspective,

gold is an effective means of hedging against inflation

. According to the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, since 1900, the real return rate of gold and commodities has positively correlated with inflation.

Potential demand for gold remains strong. Although gold ETF (exchange-traded fund) investors slightly reduced their gold holdings earlier this month, their positions have recently shown greater stability, while hedge funds have moderately increased their net long positions in gold. Central banks in multiple countries continue to purchase gold, individual investment activities are increasing, and there is a structural rise in demand for gold jewelry in Asia as incomes grow — all of which suggest that total global demand for gold is likely to remain robust.

UBS analysts stated that for investors who are fond of gold, moderate allocation to gold can enhance portfolio diversification and help hedge against systemic risks. For those who have already allocated substantially to gold and earned significant returns, expanding commodity investments to include assets such as copper and aluminum may help diversify future sources of income.

Robert Midthun, Head of ETF Strategy at Ambrian Asset Management,

believes that focus should not be limited to whether the international gold price falls below the $5,000/oz mark, but should also consider the impact of the current global debt issue on gold prices. The continued expansion of central bank balance sheets around the world remains the most stable factor supporting the long-term performance of gold.

The purchasing power of major global currencies, including the US dollar, has declined significantly, while the scale of central bank balance sheets in various countries has risen markedly since the early 21st century, with gold serving to preserve value as a store of wealth.

A broader macroeconomic backdrop also supports ongoing demand for this precious metal, since the US government shows little or no willingness or ability to reduce the rapidly rising debt levels, which provides sustained and stable support for gold prices.

Midthun is optimistic that the international gold price will rise to around $5,500/oz this year, and given the macroeconomic risks facing the world, this figure may even be too conservative.

After significant gains in international gold prices in recent years, many investors remain cautious about entering the gold market. Under current circumstances, if the international gold price rises further, it may

attract capital that previously had not participated in the market back into this sector

Editor | Jiao Yang Layout | Jiao Yang Visuals | Zhang Zongwei

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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