USD/JPY Price Forecast: Holds steady above 159.00 as bulls await Fed/BoJ policy updates
The USD/JPY pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Tuesday and stalls its modest pullback from the 159.75 area, or the highest level since July 2024, retested the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 159.20-159.25 region, though bulls seem hesitant amid intervention fears and ahead of the key central bank event risks.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday, which will be followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy update on Thursday. Investors will look for fresh cues about the central bank's rate outlook amid inflationary concerns stemming from a further escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. This, in turn, will provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair and help in determining the next leg of a directional move.
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bullish as the USD/JPY pair holds well above the rising 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, indicating buyers retain control despite recent hesitancy. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive after recovering from negative territory, suggesting improving upward momentum.
That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 49 stays close to the neutral line, which reinforces a modest upside tone rather than a strong trending move. Hence, any further move up is more likely to confront some resistance near the 159.75 region ahead of 160.00, where psychological offers could cap gains. A clear hourly close above the latter would strengthen the bullish case and pave the way for a retest of higher highs in the coming sessions.
On the downside, initial support emerges at 159.00, with a break exposing the next downside level near the 200-period SMA around 158.40. A sustained move below that area would weaken the current bullish bias and open the door toward 158.00. On the upside, immediate resistance stands at 159.60, the recent intraday high zone, followed by
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
US PPI report to test Bitcoin, gold and Nasdaq as December rate hike looms
Nvidia falls to its lowest valuation in 14 years! "Super bull" Tom Lee calls for bottom fishing, retail investors are buying more as it drops, but Wall Street is divided
After the market opened on Thursday, retail investors went against the trend and bought up Nvidia, with net purchases reaching $111 million in just half an hour, setting a record for the same period. Investors such as Tom Lee have publicly supported the company, with institutions optimistic about strong order backlogs extending to 2028, robust revenue growth, and opportunities created by declining valuations. Meanwhile, institutions like Bernstein and Goldman Sachs have become more cautious about Nvidia's outlook, with concerns focusing on management succession and technological leadership following Jensen Huang's departure.
Jane Street boosts Fidelity Bitcoin ETF stake 8x in Q3, trims BlackRock IBIT
From SpaceX to Anthropic, the market has new strategies for dealing with tech giants' IPOs
The market's response strategies to major listings are currently centered around "index inclusion expectations": the new regulations allow mega IPOs to be included in the six major indices within 15 days, triggering concentrated buying by passive funds. Investors are positioning themselves in advance and using options to hedge and amplify buying power. However, Anthropic has a free float of only about 6%; shares available for sale by employees on the first day and privately placed shares with no lock-up period may create supply pressure. On the other hand, index arbitrageurs are facing a rare opportunity.
Crypto prices
More
