Before the surge in energy prices triggered by the US-Iran conflict, Canadian inflation data had already shown positive signs.

Oxford Economics analyst Michael Davenport pointed out that before the surge in energy prices triggered by the US-Iran conflict, Canadian inflation data had already shown positive signals, with the overall CPI inflation rate falling by 0.5 percentage points to 1.8%. This conflict has cast a shadow over the inflation outlook and significantly increased market uncertainty. Davenport estimates that if Brent crude oil prices remain around $100 per barrel in the coming months, Canada's inflation rate in the second quarter may rise above 3% year-on-year; if the average oil price reaches $140 per barrel over two months, mid-year inflation could approach 4%. However, this economist believes that the Bank of Canada will ignore the short-term inflation rise caused by the oil shock and is likely to maintain a wait-and-see attitude throughout 2026.