The Bitcoin market awaits a precise signal before a sustained rebound

Bitcoin does not necessarily lack strength. What it mainly lacks is a clear signal. According to Glassnode, this signal comes from a simple yet incredibly useful indicator: the share of bitcoins held by short-term investors still in profit. As long as this gauge remains below 50%, the idea of a sustained rebound remains fragile.

Why this 50% threshold matters so much

Less than half of the supply held by short-term holders, that is, investors who entered less than 155 days ago, is currently in unrealized gains. For Glassnode, this blockage reflects a hesitant market. In short, BTC may rebound temporarily, but it still lacks the psychological base needed to trigger a strong recovery.

The Bitcoin market often operates on psychological tipping points. The 50% threshold is one of them. When more than half of the short-term holders return to profit, the mood shifts. Selling pressure eases, and risk appetite returns gradually.

Conversely, when this proportion remains below half, a large part of recent entrants holds losing positions. This detail weighs heavily. These investors are often the most sensitive to volatility. They sell faster, cut losses earlier, and react more strongly to market shocks.

This situation generally reflects a still timid demand. It is not necessarily a signal of collapse. It is rather the sign of a market that has not yet regained real confidence. As long as this confidence does not return among new entrants, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to incomplete recoveries.

Short-term holders remain the nervous link of the market

In on-chain analysis, short-term holders occupy a special place. They often absorb the most brutal variations. They enter during phases of enthusiasm, then test their conviction as soon as the price falls back. Their behavior thus provides a fairly clear reading of the market’s immediate health.

When these players are mostly in the green, the atmosphere changes quickly. The market breathes easier. Profit-taking still exists, but it occurs within a healthier structure. The price can then rely on a more stable base, as not all new entrants are stuck below their purchase price.

However, when many of these holders remain underwater, Bitcoin advances with an invisible brake. Every rise becomes suspicious. Every rebound triggers relief selling. This mechanism does not prevent occasional progress, but it clearly complicates the building of a clean and sustainable bullish trend.

What the market has already shown in the past

The value of this indicator mainly comes from its history. Glassnode recalls that when the share of short-term holders in profit rose above 50% in the past, it often preceded a more credible recovery phase. The market reacted this way during the rebound in the first half of 2025.

At that time, the return of profitability among recent entrants not only improved sentiment but also served as fuel to restart a broader dynamic. Bitcoin then extended its rise by reaching new highs. So, this is not an isolated technical detail. It is a behavioral pivot.

However, one should avoid magical thinking. Crossing above 50% does not automatically guarantee a price explosion. On the other hand, the absence of this signal makes the recovery much less credible. That is the whole nuance. This indicator does not promise a rally. It mainly helps distinguish a real turnaround from a simple spurt.

Can Bitcoin rebound right now?

Bitcoin recently tried to return to 72,000 dollars after a 3% rise in 24 hours. This move shows that the market is trying to rebuild momentum. But for a rebound to become more than just a simple episode, we will need to see if the profitability of short-term holders really follows.

It is often the trap of nervous markets. The Bitcoin price rises before the structure is fully repaired. This gives encouraging short-term signals, then the momentum fades. Without a clear improvement in the situation of short-term holders, the risk remains that of a technical rebound, not yet that of an established recovery.