Bitcoin to $78K? Pro traders price in less than 17% odds of a breakout

Key takeaways:

• Professional traders remain cautious, pricing low odds for a Bitcoin breakout to $78,000 despite recent ETF inflows.

• US and Israel-Iran war and soft US labor data offset momentum in Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin options: 17% chance of breaking $78,000

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $70,000 mark again on Wednesday. However, repeated failed attempts to break above $74,000 over the last five weeks have fueled skepticism. The ongoing US and Israel-Iran war, coupled with disappointing US labor numbers, has only added to the cautious outlook.

Traders are now evaluating whether recent inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) signal an imminent bullish breakout.

While US-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw $414 million in net inflows between Monday and Tuesday, this was insufficient to offset the $576 million in net outflows recorded the previous Thursday and Friday. 

Data from the derivatives market suggests that professional traders are skeptical of a significant rally before the end of the month.

Bitcoin call options on Deribit for March 27, which target a $78,000 strike price, traded at $704 on Wednesday. This pricing indicates that whales and market makers see less than a 17% chance of Bitcoin gaining roughly 12% from its current levels.

This cautious outlook is also visible in the futures market, where demand for leveraged long positions remains stagnant.

The annualized premium (basis rate) for monthly Bitcoin futures has stayed below the 4% neutral threshold. Notably, this metric failed to shift even after a 16% four-day rally that peaked with a retest of $74,000 on March 4.

Current onchain and derivatives data point toward indifference rather than an expectation of a sharp crash.

Economic outlook offsets institutional BTC inflows

Professional traders appear wary of sustained BTC price momentum, largely due to a worsening global economy.

Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said that investors are far more focused on how the conflict feeds into inflation, according to Yahoo Finance.

Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt wrote on Monday that the $25 oil price gain essentially offsets the fiscal benefit from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, according to CNBC.

McCourt added that after the Gulf War in 1990 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it took about six months for oil prices to get back to where they were before.

The 92,000 job positions cut in the US during February, announced on Friday, vastly disappointed analysts, as consensus anticipated a 55,000 increase. Sentiment further deteriorated on Monday after JPMorgan reportedly reduced the value of private credit loans made to software firms, according to Financial Times.

Regardless of the economic outlook, yield products revolving around Strategy (MSTR US) shares are becoming increasingly supportive for Bitcoin’s price. The company announced a record high daily average price and trading volume, offering opportunities to issue at-the-market share offerings and use the proceeds to buy additional spot Bitcoin positions.

Related: Price predictions 3/11: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, BCH, HYPE, XMR

X user “gumsays” said that Strategy Variable Rate Perpetual (STRC US) adoption would lead to Strategy buying billions worth of Bitcoin per week.

The analysis added that a potential series of ETF inflows could result in sustained institutional demand. Therefore, traders will likely have to wait until after March for Bitcoin to break $78,000.