Ether funding rate flips negative: Are ETH bears back in control?

Key takeaways:

• Ether price struggled as investors pulled $225 million from the spot ETFs, and Ethereum staking rewards underperformed compared to stablecoin yields.

• Recent Ethereum network upgrades and plans for improved wallet security are positives, but fail to kickstart demand for Ether.

Ether (ETH) price has repeatedly failed to sustain levels above $2,100 over the past month, gradually eroding traders’ confidence in the altcoin. Even with a 7% rise between Monday and Tuesday, ETH derivatives metrics suggest a lack of interest in leveraged bullish positions, potentially signaling that bears remain in control.

ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

ETH perpetual futures dipped into negative territory on Tuesday, signaling increased demand for short (bearish) positions. More importantly, this metric has remained below the neutral 6% to 12% range for the past month. Part of this investor disappointment stems from a 54% price decline over six months, even though cooling onchain activity has also played a significant role.

Weekly base layer fees on the Ethereum network averaged $2.3 million over the past month, down from an $8 million peak in early February. While 7-day transaction counts stabilized near 14 million, the current industry focus on layer-2 rollup scalability has so far failed to generate fresh demand for native Ether.

ETH 30-day options delta skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas.ch

Contrary to perpetual futures markets, the ETH options risk gauge hovered near the neutral -6% to +6% range on Tuesday. Put (sell) options traded at a 7% premium relative to call (buy) instruments, suggesting confidence is slowly returning among Ether bulls. Furthermore, no competitor has yet challenged Ethereum’s $56 billion in total value locked (TVL).

Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $225 million in net outflows between Thursday and Monday, reversing the $169 million in inflows seen on Wednesday. This metric serves as a proxy to institutional demand, which is currently held back by the 2.8% native staking reward rate. By comparison, stablecoin yields on Sky Lending (formerly MakerDAO) sat higher at 3.75%.

Weak spot ETH ETF demand and concerns with Ethereum’s roadmap

Excitement surrounding the ETF staking approval in the US, which occurred in late 2025, has not yet translated into sustainable demand. One could argue that the negative outcome was simply a result of bad luck, as the launch coincided with a broader crypto market downturn that began in early October after total market capitalization neared a $4 trillion all-time high.

Related:

ETH/USD (blue) vs. total crypto capitalization (orange). Source: TradingView

ETH has underperformed the broader cryptocurrency market since October 2025, and there are no signs that a reversal is underway. Investor sentiment is also impaired by a staggering $735 million net loss from the Ethereum treasury firm Sharplink (SBET US) in 2025. The company, chaired by Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin, released these financial results on Monday.

The pace of native chain scalability might have contributed to Ether’s negative performance. For instance, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said on Saturday that account abstraction, equivalent to smart accounts, will likely be shipped “within a year,” after more than a decade under development. Transactions will be able to reference each other’s data, enabling quantum-resistant wallets.

Another advantage of the upcoming Ethereum Hegota fork is paying gas fees in non-ETH tokens using special-purpose decentralized exchanges, while adding a “general-purpose public mempool” and removing “public broadcasters” in privacy platforms such as Railgun and Tornado Cash. Buterin also said that he expects “progressive decreases” of slot time and finality time in the long term.

Overall, ETH derivatives and onchain activity point to low conviction in a bullish breakout above $2,200, but at the same time, there is no indication of worsening conditions or domination from bears.