NZD/USD bounces off key moving averages as battle to stay above 0.59 continues

NZD/USD rose about 0.6% on Monday, closing near 0.5950 after knocking on 0.5850 in the early session. The pair found support near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) before recovering to close above the 50-day EMA, producing a candle with a long lower wick, suggesting buyers are defending the 0.5850 to 0.5900 zone. Since peaking near 0.6090 in early February, the pair has been grinding lower, forming lower highs while holding above the 0.5850 area.

Monday's better-than-expected Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) data (1.3% YoY versus 0.8% consensus) provided a lift across antipodean currencies, though the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to cap risk appetite. Chinese February trade data on Tuesday is the next test of regional demand, with exports forecast at 7.1% YoY and imports at 6.3%.

On the domestic side, New Zealand's February Business NZ Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is due Thursday after a solid 55.2 reading in January. Wednesday's US February CPI release is the week's dominant event for the US Dollar side of the pair, with headline inflation expected at 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY.

NZD/USD daily chart

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5936. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot continues to retreat from the early-month highs while holding well above the clustered 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages near 0.59 and 0.58, which preserve a broader upward context. Price action has slipped back into the recent range, and the Stochastic oscillator has turned higher from the low-30s, signalling fading downside momentum rather than a confirmed bullish reversal, which argues for a consolidative to softer tone while below recent peaks.

Initial resistance emerges at 0.6000, where recent swing highs align with the latest rejection area, followed by 0.6050 as the next barrier if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support is at 0.5900, protecting a deeper pullback toward 0.5850, where the rising 50-day EMA begins to reinforce the prior breakout area. A sustained break below 0.5850 would expose the 0.5800 zone, closer to the 200-day EMA, and would weaken the medium-term bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)