EUR/USD tumbles toward the 1.1500 area, marking a new low not seen since November 2025 as the USD strengthens

EUR/USD Drops to New Lows Amid Global Uncertainty

EUR/USD began the week with a downward gap, falling to its lowest point since November 2025 near 1.1520-1.1515 during Asian trading. Current market conditions indicate that the currency pair is likely to continue its decline.

Despite disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls data last Friday, heightened tensions in the Middle East have renewed interest in the US Dollar as a safe haven. The ongoing US-Israel operations against Iran, now in their tenth day, are dampening investor confidence. This uncertainty is reflected in widespread losses across global stock markets, further strengthening the Dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.

At the same time, crude oil prices have surged above the $100 mark, driven by fears of supply interruptions from the Strait of Hormuz. Since the conflict began, oil has climbed over 25%, leading to higher fuel costs worldwide and intensifying inflation worries. As a result, investors have postponed expectations for the next US Federal Reserve rate hike, and US Treasury yields continue to rise, supporting the Dollar’s strength.

Europe’s heavy dependence on imported energy means that further increases in crude and natural gas prices could deliver a significant economic blow. This adds to the downward pressure on the euro and reinforces the negative forecast for EUR/USD. Market participants are now awaiting this week’s US inflation data for clues on the Fed’s rate-cut plans, while attention remains focused on geopolitical events and oil price movements.