Bitcoin still due 'next leg down' as $73K BTC price precedes death cross

Bitcoin (BTC) needs a “major bullish catalyst” to avoid canceling out its March rally, says the latest analysis.

Key points:

• New findings warn that short-term BTC price strength does not remove the risk of the bear market continuing.

• Bitcoin faces plenty of overhead resistance in the mid-$70,000 zone.

• A “death cross” formed of two weekly trend lines is still on course to confirm this week.

BTC price caught between multiple trend lines

In an update on Wednesday, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, warned that BTC price weakness was still present beyond low time frames.

Bitcoin hit monthly highs of $73,019 at the day’s Wall Street open, continuing a rebound that accompanied renewed conflict in the Middle East.

While this quickly led to predictions of a bull market comeback and even new all-time highs, Alan was frank about the BTC price outlook.

“This is an important candle to watch on the $BTC chart,” he summarized. 

“On the surface, we're seeing a short squeeze. From a technical perspective, this D candle is attempting to validate R/S Flips at the 21-Day SMA, the 2021 Top at $69k, and a Timescape Level at $71.3k.”

Alan referred to various key levels near the spot price, including the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at around $67,550, per data from TradingView.

Also on the radar were the 50-day SMA at $76,350, along with the 21-week and 100-day SMA trend lines at $88,000 and $87,300, respectively.

“If bulls can push price up from here I expect some friction around psychological resistance ~$75k, technical resistance at the $50-Day MA, and the next Timescape Level at $78.3k,” he continued. 

“A support test, sooner than later, would be healthy, but I'm not sure that the market is going to make it that easy on us.  However this develops, IMO, the longer it takes to grind up, the more durable the rally will likely be.”

Bitcoin death cross still due this weekly candle

As Cointelegraph reported, long-term price expectations for the current bear market favor a bottom at or below the $50,000 mark.

Related: ‘This is not World War III:’ Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

A return to BTC price downside, Alan warned, could come as soon as next week, thanks to a so-called “death cross” involving the 21-week and 100-week SMAs.

A death cross occurs when the former trend line crosses below the latter, implying weaker recent price action compared to the longer-term trend.

“The caveat to that is the simple fact that next week we will print a death cross between the 21 and 100 Week MAs, and that will likely be a precursor to the next leg down unless we get a major bullish catalyst,” he concluded.