Analysts lift Circle's price target as oil spike and rate outlook buoy stablecoin trade

Shares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) rose nearly 8% on Tuesday to $103.71, marking their highest level in almost four months, according to price data. Analysts at Mizuho see rising oil prices and shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations as tailwinds for the stablecoin issuer’s valuation.

Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins raised their price target on Circle to $100 from $90 while maintaining a "neutral" rating, arguing that the recent surge in crude oil, which is up roughly 6% over five days and about 24% year to date, may reduce the odds of rate cuts in 2026.

Oil and rates

The move in oil follows escalating U.S.-Iran tensions after weekend airstrikes, which also triggered volatility across global markets, causing Bitcoin to see-saw in a range between $65,000 and $70,000.

For Circle, the key variable is interest rates.

The company generates revenue from interest earned on reserves backing USDC, and "higher-for-longer" rates support that model. Mizuho estimates that softer rate-cut expectations would lift its 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts by only about 1%, but the more significant impact may be on valuation.

Data from CME’s FedWatch tool shows the probability of a no rate cut scenario in 2026 roughly doubled over the past day. That shift in right-tail risk likely adds “more torque” to Circle’s multiple, the analysts wrote.

Valuation and competition

Mizuho models average USDC in circulation at about 123 million in 2027, implying roughly $3.7 billion in reserve income and $922 million in EBITDA.

The firm applies a 27x multiple, above the roughly 19x average for peers such as Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, and Robinhood, supporting its new $100 price target.

Despite the stronger macro backdrop, Mizuho reiterated longer-term concerns around stablecoin competition and potential commoditization, particularly as regulatory clarity draws more entrants into dollar-backed tokens.