Oxford Research Institute concludes: With supply buffers in place, the risk of a full-scale oil crisis is controllable

⑴ Bridget Payne, Head of Energy Forecasting at Oxford Economics, pointed out in her latest report that, due to the current ample market supply, which is sufficient to cope with the impact of the Middle East conflict, a full-scale oil crisis is unlikely to break out. She believes the probability of Iran experiencing severe and prolonged supply disruptions is low.⑵ The institution currently assumes that crude oil supply will decrease by an average of 4 million barrels per day in the next quarter, and based on this, expects the average price of Brent crude oil in the second quarter to be $79 per barrel, which is $15 higher than the baseline forecast in February. As supply recovers towards the end of the quarter, prices will fall back.⑶ Payne further analyzed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sufficient spare capacity and, in theory, can make up for the supply gap caused by Iran’s production cuts. This factor forms the core of the market’s buffer mechanism.⑷ However, she also pointed out a potential bottleneck: alternative trade routes can at most reroute only about one-third of the normal oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. This means that even with supplementary capacity, the physical limitations of transportation channels remain a key variable affecting the efficiency of supply recovery.