Duration of the conflict determines economic cost, JPMorgan warns of energy shock

格隆汇 March 2｜JPMorgan's economists wrote that the impact of the Iran conflict on the global economy depends on the duration of hostile actions. They believe that rising oil prices are the most likely economic channel to produce significant ripple effects. In the case of a short-term conflict, oil prices may quickly return to their previous trajectory, and the global economy may not be severely affected. On the other hand, if oil prices remain high in the first half of this year, the energy price shock could reduce the annualized growth rate of global GDP in the first half by 0.6 percentage points and push the global consumer inflation rate up by more than 1 percentage point in the same period.