鲍威尔凌晨又将登场！这次他会让市场高兴吗？

Powell will give a speech this Friday discussing interest rates and economic issues. Investors and economists will closely watch for his hints regarding the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision and the policy outlook for 2025.

Powell will participate in a discussion hosted by a moderator at the Dallas Regional Chamber at 4 PM Beijing time on Friday, marking his first public address after the press conference following the meeting on November 7. At that press conference, Federal Reserve policymakers lowered the interest rate target by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%, following a 50 basis point cut in September.

At that time, Powell stuck to the established script, stating that the current U.S. economy is robust, but there is significant uncertainty regarding the outlook. He mentioned that monetary policy would continue to rely on data, and the Federal Reserve would make interest rate decisions based on the circumstances of each meeting.

We know that relaxing policy limits too quickly could hinder progress on inflation," he said at that time. "Meanwhile, relaxing policy limits too slowly may excessively weaken economic activity and employment. When considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and risk balance. We are not following any pre-set path.

Powell also did not comment extensively on the impact of election results, noting that Republican Trump controlled the White House as well as the Senate and the House of Representatives in this election. "I won't talk about anything directly or indirectly related to the election," he said. When asked if he would resign if Trump asked him to, Powell simply replied, "No." His term as the chairman of the Federal Reserve will end in May 2026.

Powell may discuss recent economic data, including the inflation data for October released on Wednesday, which basically met expectations. The CPI for October increased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 2.6% year-on-year. The core CPI inflation rate rose by 0.3% in October and by 3.2% year-on-year. Housing-related prices accounted for more than half of last month's core CPI increase.

In recent speeches, Powell emphasized the risk balance of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate - stabilizing inflation and supporting maximum employment. He described the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path as a "normalization" of policy.

The pricing in the interest rates futures market on Wednesday suggests that the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut at the usa Federal Reserve meeting on December 17-18 is over 80%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is less than 20%.

An update to the quarterly economic projections summary by policymakers in September indicates a median forecast of a 1 percentage point rate cut for 2024, followed by another 1 percentage point cut in 2025. Officials will update the so-called "dot plot" at the December meeting, giving them an opportunity to indicate the policy path for 2025 and beyond.

Editor/Lambor