Data shows: Holding Bitcoin for at least three years is necessary to avoid losses

PANews, February 28 – According to Cointelegraph, an analysis by Bitwise reviewed bitcoin's price history from July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026, and concluded that if bitcoin is held for at least three years, the probability of loss drops to just 0.70%. The risk of loss decreases further with longer holding periods: 0.2% for five years, and 0% for ten years. Traders holding for less than three years face a higher risk of loss; for example, the probability of loss for intraday buyers is 47.1%.

Although bitcoin has fallen by about 50% from its October 2025 high and is currently trading at around $65,000, it remains well above its realized price of $34,780 over the past three to five years, meaning investors who bought and held during this period still enjoy about 90% profit. However, most traders who bought in the past two years are in a loss position: those holding for 6 to 12 months have a cost basis of about $101,250, with an unrealized loss of about 35%; those holding for 1 to 2 years have a cost basis of about $78,150, with an unrealized loss of about 15%.