Supply Flood Approaches: Middle East Oil Market Faces Selling Pressure Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

⑴ Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has offered additional crude oil shares to its onshore oilfield partners, a move that comes on the eve of the OPEC+ meeting. Reports from two trading sources and institutions on Friday confirmed that this will increase the already abundant supply in the Middle East. ⑵ The spot premium for Murban crude loaded in April is under pressure, with institutional data showing it has fallen below $2 per barrel over the past week. ADNOC's onshore oilfields produce about 2 million barrels per day, with partners including BP, TotalEnergies, China National Petroleum Corporation, and Korea's GS Energy, who collectively hold about 40% of the output share of this crude. ⑶ Saudi Arabia is also increasing production and exports, preparing contingency plans for potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. As the OPEC+ meeting approaches on Sunday, oil-producing countries are considering increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in April, after having suspended the first quarter's production increase plan. The market is concerned that Trump's tariff remarks may trigger a slowdown in global demand, creating dual pressure alongside the increase in supply.