Bitunix Analyst: Rate Cut Expectations Cool Down, BTC Enters Range-Bound Liquidity Game

BlockBeats News, February 27th: The market's expectation of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Wash implementing an immediate rate cut has cooled rapidly. The IMF expects the U.S. economic growth to rise to 2.4% this year, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4%, inflation gradually easing, and only a 25 basis points rate cut space in the next year. Interest rate futures indicate that the initial rate cut expectation has been pushed back from June to July. Meeting minutes also revealed that some officials have an open attitude towards raising rates again, indicating a marginal shift in the policy stance towards a more hawkish position.

Meanwhile, the 30-year U.S. mortgage rate has fallen to 5.98%, dropping below 6% for the first time since 2022. While this helps improve housing affordability, amid resilient economic data, the market's expectations of significant easing have significantly diminished. The macro focus has shifted from "when will rates be cut" to "how long will high rates be maintained".

On the crypto market front, there is a significant concentration of short positions in the 69,000–70,500 range above BTC, with strong support for long positions in the 66,000–66,500 range below. The price is currently oscillating around the midpoint of the range, exhibiting a typical liquidity tug-of-war structure in the short term.