Goldman Sachs: Oil prices have already priced in a $5-6 per barrel Iran risk premium, expected to fall to $60 in Q4

Goldman Sachs stated in a report on February 25 that oil prices already include a risk premium of $5 to $6 per barrel due to the possibility of a U.S. attack on Iran. Analysts, including Yulia Grisby, pointed out that this premium, combined with declining inventories at major global pricing centers, has kept Brent crude prices just above the $70 level. The report shows that Iran's crude oil loadings have risen to their highest level since 2018, and offshore Iranian crude inventories for sale have reached a record high. Global visible inventories decreased by an average of 500,000 barrels per day last week, with a daily average decline of 300,000 barrels so far this month. Meanwhile, Russian oil production is also under pressure from Ukrainian attacks. Goldman Sachs also mentioned that several new projects in Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Nigeria, Uganda, and the United States will come online this year, including the Jafurah oil and gas field in Saudi Arabia, which started production in December last year, and the Zuluf oil field, which will begin production this year. The bank reiterated its forecast: Brent crude prices will fall to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.