Analysis: Bitcoin traders show "excessive loss" signals, which may push the price below $44,000

PANews, February 24 — According to Cointelegraph, Glassnode data shows that the realized profit and loss ratio (90-day moving average) for bitcoin traders has fallen below 1, indicating that investors are selling their holdings at a loss. This is the first time such a signal has appeared since 2022. Historical data shows that when this indicator falls below 1, it is usually accompanied by at least six months of realized losses and signals further price declines: during the 2022 bear market, bitcoin fell 25% within six months after the indicator dropped below 1, and in 2018, it fell more than 50% within five months.

Glassnode pointed out that if history repeats itself, bitcoin may "fully transition into an excessive realized loss phase," with the price decline potentially lasting more than five months. Based on the MVRV pricing range indicator, bitcoin's current extremely low value area is around $43,760, a level that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms and also falls within the potential bottom range of $40,000-$50,000 predicted by several analysts.