Caixin Futures Agricultural Products Strategy: Divergent Trends in Oils, Range Trading for Soybean Meal and Corn

⑴ Palm Oil: On the first day of the new year, the oil and fat sector rose driven by crude oil, but palm oil increased with reduced open interest and had the smallest gain. Due to poor export data and weak quotations from production areas, the fundamentals remain weak, dragging down the market and making it the weakest link in crude oil transmission. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now.⑵ Soybean Meal: Internationally, the US raising global import tariffs and the expected increase in US soybean planting area are bearish factors. Domestic inventories remain high, and supply pressure persists. It is recommended to treat the market as range-bound and consider short positions at higher levels.⑶ Corn: The main logic for strong prices is the year-on-year low inventory at northern ports, but downstream losses and warmer weather may limit short-term upward momentum. Short-term volatility is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to go long on dips.⑷ Live Hog: Although the number of breeding sows has declined month-on-month, the absolute value is still higher than the normal retention level, indicating a relatively large medium-term supply. In the short term, post-holiday demand is weak and spot prices continue to weaken. It is recommended to focus on shorting at higher levels.⑸ Eggs: Post-holiday purchasing and sales are recovering slowly, with significant supply pressure in February and March, and terminal demand is in the off-season. It is recommended to focus on shorting at higher levels and pay attention to the subsequent restocking pace of traders.