Bitcoin at 88% Chance to End the Year Higher

Bitcoin is going through a turbulent zone, but the numbers might tell a very different story. Economist Timothy Peterson just published an analysis that catches attention: according to him, the probability that bitcoin will end the year higher than its current level is 88%. Enough to rekindle hope or fuel debate.

50% of the Last 24 Months Have Been Positive for Bitcoin

This Saturday, Timothy Peterson shared an analysis that quickly made waves. The economist specializing in digital assets published on X an indicator he closely watches: the number of positive months recorded by bitcoin over a rolling 24-month period.

His observation is clear. Over the past two years, exactly half of the months have posted gains for bitcoin. This seemingly trivial ratio sends a strong signal: according to his model, it implies “an 88% probability that bitcoin will be higher in ten months“, around December 22, 2026.

The numbers support this interpretation. In 2025, BTC ended in the green in January, April, May, June, July, and September—six months out of twelve. The other six ended in losses. A half-hearted performance, certainly, but enough to cross the threshold Peterson considers as triggering his bullish signal.

A Market Under Pressure, but Reasons to Believe

The context remains difficult. Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, after opening the year near $80,000. The correction thus exceeds 25% since January. And across the overall crypto market, the record is even harsher: nearly all speculative gains recorded after the November 2024 U.S. presidential election have been erased.

The Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of investor sentiment, shows a score of 9 out of 100, an extreme fear level rarely reached. This environment drives some analysts to caution. Trader Peter Brandt, a respected figure in the sector, believes that bitcoin “won’t reach its true bottom until October 2026.”

Conversely, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, bets on an imminent rebound. He notes that the current month is closing strongly higher after five consecutive months of decline.

The Polymarket platform, meanwhile, gives a 17% chance that December 2026 will be the best month of the year for BTC, just behind November, historically the best-performing month with an average return of 41% since 2013.

Ultimately, Peterson’s signal guarantees nothing, but it deserves attention. In a market where fear dominates, historical data remind us that the most powerful reversals often occur when no one expects them. Keeping a cool head remains, once again, the best strategy.