Analyst: The effective U.S. tariff rate remains below the level prior to the Supreme Court ruling

Jinse Finance reported that analyst Chao Deng stated that a forecast by Yale University's Budget Lab estimates that even with the imposition of a new 15% tariff, the current effective tariff rate in the United States remains below the level prior to the Supreme Court ruling. Before the ruling, the rate was 16%, which immediately dropped to 9.1% after the decision, and is now expected to rise back to 13.7%. It is still unclear how the 2.3 percentage point decrease will affect employment, wage growth, and the prices of goods and services. In contrast, throughout 2025, the effective tariff rate will surge by more than 10 percentage points, reaching levels not seen in decades. The economic impact of this sharp increase is far less dire than many economists have predicted. However, the impact should not be ignored. According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, for most of 2025, U.S. businesses and consumers will bear more than 90% of the cost of Trump’s tariffs, with some companies freezing hiring and investment as a result. The inflation report in January showed that prices of several categories of goods recently subjected to tariffs have risen, including appliances, furniture, and new cars. This indicates that retailers have begun to pass these costs on to consumers.