The probability of "the court ordering Trump to refund tariffs" being denied on Polymarket surpasses 80%

BlockBeats News, February 22, according to prediction platform Polymarket data, the market currently believes that the probability of a court ordering Trump to return tariffs before July 2026 is 19%, while the probability of denial has risen to 82%.

As previously reported by BlockBeats, on February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled by a vote of 6 to 3 that Trump’s trade tariff policy was illegal. The Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. It upheld the lower court decision of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which found Trump’s tariffs to be illegal.

Subsequently, Trump called the Supreme Court’s decision a “disgrace.” Trump stated that after the ruling was issued, he already had alternative plans regarding tariffs.