Treasury bills seen driving Bitcoin price
US Treasury bill issuance is the primary liquidity metric influencing Bitcoin’s price rather than Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion, according to new research from crypto investment firm Keyrock.
The report finds that every 1% change in global liquidity levels leads to a 7.6% move in Bitcoin’s price in the following business quarter, though not all newly created money impacts risk assets equally.
“When the Treasury ramps up Treasury bill issuance, it is financing spending that flows into the real economy, and eventually into risk assets like Bitcoin,”
Wrote Keyrock researcher, Amir Hajian.
Keyrock said Treasury bill issuance has shown about an 80% correlation with Bitcoin prices since 2021 and typically leads BTC returns by around eight months, suggesting fiscal flows act as a forward indicator.
Despite the strong historical link, institutions and exchange-traded funds have dampened Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity conditions by roughly 23%, while the analysis forecasts global liquidity could influence BTC again in late 2026 and early 2027.
The report also highlighted that a large portion of the $38 trillion US national debt will mature over the next four years, requiring refinancing at higher interest rates after much of it was issued during near-zero rate periods.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Nvidia (NVDA.US) New CEO Candidates and Market Predictions: Trump Nominates Cook as Successor
As the successor remains uncertain, external voices have already begun to "make choices" for Nvidia.
Safe haven halo fails? US Treasury sell-off returns, Wall Street just breathed a sigh of relief and is startled again
Just as global bond investors began to believe that the worst phase of this year's sell-off had passed, the surge in U.S. Treasury yields has forced them to reassess that judgment.
Before the Jensen Huang scandal broke out, the Quant King precisely cleared out Nvidia!
The latest 13F filing shows that quantitative giant Renaissance Technologies almost completely sold off its holdings in Nvidia (reduced by 99.7%), Meta (reduced by 99.9%), as well as other tech giants like Apple and Amazon in the third quarter, and significantly reduced its position in Palantir. At the same time, it heavily increased its holdings in Micron Technology (up by 618.7%), AMD, and SanDisk, as well as other storage and chip stocks.
British Pound extends losing streak against US Dollar, US PPI in focus
Crypto prices
More
