Analysis: Bear market expected to continue until mid-2027, closely monitor the crossover signal between the 90-day and 365-day moving averages

According to Odaily, crypto analyst Axel stated in his personal blog that the current bear market cycle began from the all-time high of approximately $125,000 in October 2025—this is confirmed by the Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator, which reached a cycle peak of 0.02676 in December 2025. This indicator typically lags behind the price, and is now reversing downward.

Historically, such a reversal usually marks the start of an accumulation phase lasting from 1.1 years to 2.5 years. The chart clearly shows the previous two accumulation cycles: the 2020 bear market lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 bear market lasted 2.5 years. Both started in exactly the same way, with the green line reversing from its peak and entering a sustained downward phase, followed by a price decline. The current pattern is structurally identical.

If the historical pattern repeats, this accumulation phase will last at least until the end of 2026, with a more realistic expectation being mid-2027. The key confirmation signal is the 90-day moving average reversing downward and crossing below the 365-day moving average (0.02622) from above. Before this crossover occurs, there remains a possibility for the mid-term cycle to reset and resume its upward trend.