Analysis: If ETH breaks through the key neckline, it is likely to rebound to the $2,500 range

According to ChainCatcher, despite ETH having dropped by approximately 20% and briefly falling below the psychological threshold of $2,000, on-chain data and derivatives structures indicate that the market is brewing a potential rebound.

On-chain data shows that over 2.5 million ETH flowed into long-term holding addresses in February, with the holdings of these addresses increasing from 22 million to 26.7 million ETH since 2026. Meanwhile, about 37.22 million ETH (over 30% of circulating supply) is currently staked, leading to a continued contraction of the circulating supply. The network fundamentals have also improved significantly, with weekly transaction numbers reaching a historical high of 17.3 million, and the median Gas fee dropping to $0.008, which is about 3,000 times lower than the peak in 2021. From a technical perspective, ETH appears to be forming an "Adam and Eve bottom" reversal pattern on the 4-hour chart. If the price effectively breaks through the neckline at $2,150, the theoretical target range points to $2,473–$2,634. If the recent high-low structure is lost, $1,909 will be a key short-term liquidity level.

In terms of derivatives, ETH open interest has dropped to $11.2 billions, a significant decline from the cycle high of $30 billions in August 2025, but the estimated leverage ratio remains at a relatively high level of 0.7. Data shows that about 73% of accounts are currently in long positions; the liquidation heatmap indicates that there is over $2 billions in short liquidation pressure above $2,200, while the long liquidation scale near $1,800 is about $1 billions, making the risk of a short squeeze higher above. Analysts believe that if ETH can achieve an effective breakout above $2,150, it may open up short-term upside potential, with the target pointing to the $2,500 level.