CryptoQuant says bitcoin's 'ultimate' bear market bottom is around $55,000

Bitcoin's "ultimate" bear market bottom is currently around $55,000, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which said bear market bottoms typically take months to form rather than occur in a single capitulation event.

The firm said bitcoin’s realized price, which historically has been a major price support area in previous bear markets, represents the likely ultimate bear market bottom. Bitcoin is still trading over 25% above that level. In previous bear markets, prices fell 24% below the realized price after the FTX collapse and 30% below it during the 2018 cycle, CryptoQuant said. After reaching those levels, bitcoin typically spent four to six months forming a base, it added.

Another factor that shows that bitcoin hasn’t yet reached a structural bottom is the large daily realized losses, CryptoQuant said. Bitcoin holders recently realized $5.4 billion in daily losses on Feb. 5 when the price fell 14% to $62,000 — the largest daily realized losses since March 2023, when they amounted to $5.8 billion, and larger than the $4.3 billion losses recorded a few days after the FTX collapse of November 2022, the firm noted. Despite the scale of the realized losses, CryptoQuant said a price bottom is not near yet.

"Monthly cumulative realized losses in bitcoin terms are still much lower than the levels associated with bear market bottoms, 0.3 million BTC today, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market," it said.

Several key valuation indicators also remain above historical capitulation zones. CryptoQuant said the MVRV ratio — which compares bitcoin's market value to its realized value — has not entered the extreme undervalued range that has historically marked bear market bottoms. Similarly, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric has not reached the roughly 20% unrealized loss level seen at prior cycle lows.

Long-term holder behavior also does not yet reflect full capitulation. CryptoQuant said long-term holders are currently selling around breakeven, compared with the 30%–40% losses they historically endured at previous bear market bottoms. Meanwhile, about 55% of the bitcoin supply remains in profit, compared with the 45%–50% range typically seen at cycle lows, CryptoQuant added.

CryptoQuant further said that its Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator also remains in the Bear Phase rather than the Extreme Bear Phase, which historically marks the start of the bottoming-out phase for prices. The firm noted that this extreme phase typically lasts several months, showing that bear market bottoms typically take months to form.

Earlier this week, Standard Chartered cut its near-term crypto outlook, saying bitcoin could fall to $50,000 before bouncing back by year's end.