Bitcoin faces mounting short-term risks driven by waning investor appetite and increasing macroeconomic pressures, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick emphasized that warning signals in the US economy and diminishing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to a marked pullback across cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin now vulnerable to extended losses.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Shifting Rate Expectations
As prospects for interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have gradually faded, uncertainty has heightened in global financial markets. Standard Chartered highlights that this shifting macro environment has put additional strain on cryptocurrencies. The bank has revised its Bitcoin forecasts downward, slashing its year-end 2026 price target from $150,000 to $100,000. What’s more, Bitcoin is no longer expected to reach the previously anticipated $100,000 mark by the close of 2025.
Weaker ETF Flows and Institutional Demand
A notable outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs is also dampening demand, Standard Chartered notes. Their latest report indicates that since the October 2025 peak, ETFs’ collective Bitcoin holdings have dropped by approximately 100,000 coins. Many investors who bought at the average holding price of around $90,000 are now sitting on paper losses, raising concerns of further selling pressure if market sentiment deteriorates.
Alongside ETF dynamics, institutional players are also pulling back. The reduction in corporate treasury allocations has significantly slowed large-scale demand for digital assets. Kendrick pointed out that institutional buying no longer carries the weight it once did, with ETF inflows now playing a central role in market momentum.
The bank’s analysis shows that only about half of all circulating Bitcoin is currently in profit, a figure that, while milder compared to past bear cycles, signals a suppressed market. The reduction in profitable holders suggests intensified market pressure and contributes to the cautious sentiment prevailing among traders and institutions.
Last week, Bitcoin slid to $60,008—the lowest level seen in 16 months—before recovering to hover near $67,000. Ethereum has not escaped the turbulence either, with speculation mounting that it too could revisit lows around $1,400 if broader headwinds persist.
Despite the near-term challenges, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive stance over the long run. The bank has underscored that—unlike previous cycles—the latest price corrections have not triggered widespread platform crises. Ongoing improvements in on-chain activity hint at underlying resilience within the ecosystem, reinforcing a cautiously optimistic outlook despite recent volatility.
Finally, the bank reiterated its confidence in the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin, making it clear that the ambitious $500,000 price target for 2030 remains unchanged.
