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Bitcoin may drop toward $40K as analysts warn the bear cycle could last into 2026, with a potential market bottom forming next year.
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Experts say BTC could revisit $40K before recovery, as cycle data points to a possible bottom around May or October 2026.
Bitcoin sentiment has weakened as the market continues its correction after reaching nearly $120,000. Since that peak, BTC price has struggled to regain strength, and many analysts believe the decline may not be over.
Unlike previous bull markets that ended with sharp spikes and sudden crashes, this cycle has been different. Instead of a dramatic fall, Bitcoin has been slowly trending lower. This steady drop has frustrated many investors and created what some describe as a slow and exhausting bear market.
Now, several market experts believe Bitcoin could revisit much lower levels before finding a strong bottom.
Could Bitcoin Price Drop to $40,000?
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen recently said that Bitcoin is still in a bear phase and may fall toward $40,000 if past patterns repeat.
According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s latest peak came around day 1,062 of its market cycle. This timing is similar to previous cycle tops, which suggests the broader four-year Bitcoin cycle may still be playing out.
When Could Bitcoin Bottom?
Cowen believes there is a 60% to 70% chance that Bitcoin will form its final bottom around October 2026. He sees May 2026 as the second most likely time for the market to reach its lowest point.
In past cycles, Bitcoin often reached its lowest point during April or May before starting a new recovery phase.
He also compared the current situation to 2019. At that time, Bitcoin peaked shortly before monetary policy tightened. Even after liquidity conditions improved, the price failed to recover immediately.
Is the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Still Valid?
In past cycles, Bitcoin has fallen heavily before recovering. In its early years, it dropped about 94%. In the last bear market, it fell around 77%. If Bitcoin declines 70% from its $120,000 high, the price would be near $40,000.
Current data also shows important levels in this range. The average buying price of holders is around $55,000, and another key support level is close to $40,000.
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In earlier cycles, Bitcoin traded below these levels before forming a long-term bottom.
Another key indicator, which tracks how much Bitcoin supply is in profit versus loss, has not yet reached the level that historically signals full capitulation. That shift would likely happen if BTC trades in the $45,000 to $50,000 range.
Zacks Investment Research Chief Equity Strategist John Blank also told CNBC that Bitcoin bear markets usually last 12 to 18 months, and a move toward $40,000 remains technically possible.
Will Bitcoin Recover in 2026?
Despite short-term weakness, long-term Bitcoin forecasts remain positive.
Major firms such as Grayscale and Bernstein believe Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in 2026. Some analysts suggest the market may now follow a five-year cycle instead of the traditional four-year pattern, which could delay the next major peak.
Bitcoin could remain under pressure through 2025 and 2026. Based on past cycles, $40,000 may act as a strong support level. While short-term weakness is possible, the long-term outlook still points to recovery. Investors may need patience before the next sustained bull run begins.
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FAQs
Historically, Bitcoin has reached new highs after major drawdowns. Long-term projections still expect another ATH post-bottom.
Key technical zones sit between $40,000 and $50,000, where long-term holder cost bases and prior support levels converge.
Past cycles show recoveries take time. Consolidation often follows the bottom before sustained bullish momentum returns.
In February 2026, Bitcoin may trade between $50,000 and $75,000, with upside toward $80,000 if recovery momentum strengthens.
