Bitcoin has a 75% chance of short-term rally, says trader Alessio Rastani

With Bitcoin sliding from its recent all-time high and market sentiment sinking into extreme fear, many investors are convinced the bull run is over. While social media is filled with predictions of a deep bear market and analysts claiming the next true bottom won’t arrive until 2026, trader Alessio Rastani sees a different picture.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Rastani explains why the recent drop may not signal the start of a prolonged bear cycle. Instead, he argues that the data points to a historically recurring setup that has preceded strong rallies roughly 75% of the time.

According to Rastani’s charts, this setup has appeared after several past death cross events, the same pattern that many traders wrongly interpret as a bearish omen.

The trader also points to extreme sentiment indicators, oversold technicals, and a powerful correlation with the stock market that, in his view, all point toward a potential upside continuation.

He adds that Bitcoin (BTC) may not have formed a “blow-off top” — a feature that has defined previous market peaks — suggesting the recent high may not have been the cycle’s terminal top.

However, Rastani doesn’t shy away from addressing the bearish cycle theory either. According to him, relying solely on timing cycles can be dangerously misleading, and price action tells a very different story.