Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Government Shutdown and AI Disruptions Intertwine, Making the "True Trend" of Nonfarm Data Difficult to Discern

Glonghui, February 11｜Economists expect that the latest non-farm employment report will show that job growth in January has nearly stalled, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.4%. In addition, traders will closely watch a batch of revised data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may reveal the true state of the US job market and economy. Krishna Guha, Head of Economics and Central Bank Strategy at Evercore ISI, said: "Due to data adjustments after the government shutdown and the fundamental uncertainty surrounding the economy, it is currently very difficult to accurately judge the specific trend of labor force data." He added: "The relationship between economic growth and employment seems to be weakening... partly due to uncertainty, and we believe another part may also be related to some long-term impacts of artificial intelligence on the labor market."