'Weakest bitcoin bear case in history': Bernstein reiterates $150,000 price target for 2026

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein reiterated their bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin BTC, arguing that the current drawdown represents the weakest bear case the asset has faced to date and does not undermine its broader adoption or investment thesis. 

"What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history," the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note to clients on Monday. They argue that the recent price weakness reflects a crisis of confidence rather than any failure of the underlying system, and maintained their $150,000 bitcoin price target by the end of 2026.

The firm said none of the typical catalysts associated with past bitcoin downturns have materialized, noting that no major failures, hidden leverage, or systemic breakdowns have emerged. Instead, analysts pointed to strong institutional alignment, including a pro-bitcoin U.S. president, spot bitcoin ETF adoption, growing corporate treasury participation, and continued involvement from large asset managers, as evidence that the current cycle differs materially from previous bear markets.

"When all stars are aligned, [the] Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. [The] media is back again to write an obituary," they said. "They just decide as the world is turning to AI, Bitcoin and crypto are not interesting anymore. And not that bitcoin investors were the best quantum physics experts, they decide quantum is a bigger threat to Bitcoin than the banking industry and other mission-critical systems. Time remains a flat circle on Bitcoin."

Assessing the bear arguments

Addressing concerns that bitcoin has underperformed gold during the latest macro volatility, the Bernstein analysts argued that bitcoin continues to trade primarily as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven. They said tighter financial conditions and elevated interest rates have concentrated gains in select assets such as precious metals and AI-linked equities, while bitcoin's ETF infrastructure and corporate capital-raising channels remain positioned to absorb improved liquidity when conditions ease.

The analysts also pushed back against claims that bitcoin is losing relevance in an AI-driven economy. They argued that amid the rise of OpenClaw, blockchains and programmable wallets are well-suited to an emerging "agentic" digital environment, where autonomous software agents require global, machine-readable financial rails. Blockchain systems offer advantages over traditional banking infrastructure, which remains constrained by closed APIs and legacy integration challenges, they said.

On quantum computing risks, Bernstein acknowledged that potential future cryptographic threats warrant preparation, but said bitcoin is not uniquely exposed. The firm argued that all critical digital systems face similar challenges and will transition toward quantum-resistant standards together, adding that bitcoin's transparent codebase and growing involvement from large, well-capitalized stakeholders like Strategy position it to adapt alongside other financial and governmental systems.

Bernstein also dismissed concerns around leveraged corporate treasury bitcoin accumulation and potential miner capitulation. The analysts stated that major bitcoin-holding firms have structured their liabilities to withstand prolonged downturns. They noted that, as Strategy mentioned in its earnings call, only if bitcoin crashes to $8,000 and stays there for five years, would its balance sheet need to be restructured. Meanwhile, miners have diversified their business models to alleviate any bitcoin production cost pressures by reallocating power assets toward AI data center demand, they said.

As a result, the analysts concluded that forced selling risks have diminished materially, reinforcing their view that the current downturn does not threaten bitcoin's long-term trajectory.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Bernstein or its affiliates may provide investment banking and related services to Strategy, including acting as joint bookrunner on a recent preferred offering.