On-Chain Recurrence of the "Bottom Signal"? Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Convergence Aiming Toward $60,000

BlockBeats News, February 4th, according to Coindesk's report, an on-chain metric that has been through multiple validation cycles has once again attracted market attention. The data shows that when the supply in a profitable state and the supply in a loss state of Bitcoin converge significantly, it often corresponds to a market bottom in a bear market phase.

According to Glassnode data, there are currently about 11.1 million BTC in a profitable state, with another 8.9 million BTC in a state of unrealized losses. Historically, when these two metrics are close to equilibrium, Bitcoin has repeatedly completed its cyclical bottom.

If calculated based on the current cost basis, further convergence of the profitable and loss supply could mean that the spot price of Bitcoin is close to the $60,000 range. This signal has appeared in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, highly coinciding with significant market lows.

Analysis points out that as the price fluctuates around the overall market cost line, Bitcoin migrates between "profitable supply" and "loss supply," reflecting the overall investor pressure and sentiment cleansing. If history repeats itself, this metric may provide a key reference for judging whether this bear market cycle is nearing its end.