Institution: The "ADP Employment Report" growth is expected to slow down and will be significantly lower than the January nonfarm payroll numbers.

According to Odaily, Dave Sloan, Senior Economist for North America at the independent macroeconomic research institution Continuum Economics, stated that the ADP employment figure for January is expected to increase by 30,000, slowing from December's 41,000. At the same time, the ADP report is expected to be significantly lower than January's non-farm payroll data, as overall non-farm employment is projected to grow by 85,000 in January. In December, the ADP data was largely consistent with the non-farm payrolls, but recently ADP figures have tended to be weaker, averaging 22,000 below non-farm payrolls over the past six months. Although the gap narrowed compared to September and November, it is expected to widen to 50,000 in January. Non-farm employment in January is expected to rebound from recent weakness in the retail sector, a factor that has less impact on the ADP data. The ADP breakdown for January is expected to show a slight improvement in goods-producing sectors (especially construction), but a slowdown in the service sector. The recent trend of ADP data underperforming non-farm payrolls is most evident in the service sector, with particularly pronounced differences in the education and healthcare industries.