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A $19 billion crypto wipeout may have been a calculated attack, not market panic.
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A veteran market architect says transparency made crypto easier to exploit.
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Old Bitcoin cycle theories are being questioned as institutions change the game.
Dave Weisberger, co-founder of CoinRoutes and the man who built Morgan Stanley’s first program trading system, thinks October’s crypto crash was a coordinated attack. He shared his views on the Thinking Crypto podcast with host Tony Edward.
Weisberger called it “the greatest mass liquidation event in history.” The damage, that has kept the industry talking, was $19 billion wiped out. Bitcoin alone saw $5 billion in liquidations. Many altcoins dropped 20-70% at the bottom.
“Was it manipulation? I damn well think so. I have no proof. But it was just too damn obvious a time for an incredibly profitable attack,” he said.
How Did It Happen?
Weisberger broke down the playbook. Attackers spend weeks building a position: long spot, short perpetual futures. Then they wait for a low-liquidity window and dump spot holdings. They place bids far below market price in perpetuals.
When prices fall, leveraged traders get liquidated. Forced selling kicks in. The attackers scoop up assets at rock-bottom prices and walk away with massive profits.
DeFi exchanges got hit hardest because positions were visible on-chain. Binance’s auto-deleveraging system, Weisberger said, was “broken” during the event.
Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead?
Weisberger has no patience for the halving cycle theory. He pointed out it’s based on just three data points.
He compared it to the Super Bowl Indicator, a 16-year streak that linked NFL wins to stock market performance. That correlation was “complete and unadulterated bullshit,” he said. The four-year cycle, in his view, is no different.
Why Recovery Is Still on the Table
Weisberger stays bullish long-term. Hash rate is now 6x what it was in 2022. Around 10-30% of Bitcoin supply has moved from early holders with cost basis between $10 and $1,000 to newer buyers who paid more.
New institutional holders are making multi-year allocations, not leveraged bets, he noted.
His portfolio reflects that confidence: Bitcoin as his main holding, Solana and BitTensor as secondary plays, and smaller positions in Zcash and XRP.
