Novo Nordisk predicts sales decline this year, stock price plunges 11%

　　Novo Nordisk announced on Tuesday that it expects slower growth in sales and profits this year, and that its U.S. market sales will be impacted, causing its U.S. stock price to plunge sharply.

　　The company released this forecast simultaneously with its 2025 full-year sales data, ahead of the originally scheduled quarterly financial report, which was set to be released on Wednesday morning.

　　As of press time, Novo Nordisk's American Depositary Receipt shares had fallen by 11%. The above performance data was released after the Copenhagen stock market, the company’s primary listing venue, had closed.

　　This performance forecast comes at a time when the Danish pharmaceutical company is facing intense market competition as it tries to regain its leading position in the weight-loss drug sector.

　　In 2025, Novo Nordisk’s sales are expected to increase by 10% year-over-year, and operating profit by 6%, in line with the company’s previous performance guidance.

　　For 2026, the company expects sales to decline by 5% to 13% at constant exchange rates.

　　Novo Nordisk stated in a release: “This performance outlook factors in two main points: firstly, that the international business segment is expected to achieve sales growth, and secondly, that the U.S. business segment is expected to see a decline in sales.”

　　As the developer of the diabetes drug semaglutide, Novo Nordisk is pinning its hopes on the oral version of its weight-loss drug Wegovy and the next-generation injectable weight-loss drug CagriSema to recapture U.S. market share and reverse the ongoing slump in its stock price.

　　Due to multiple downward revisions of performance guidance, management changes, and increased market competition, Novo Nordisk’s stock fell 46.5% over the course of last year. However, with the company launching the first oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug in the U.S. market, its share price has rebounded to some extent.

　　In early January this year, Novo Nordisk officially launched the oral version of its flagship weight-loss drug Wegovy in the U.S. market. Although its initial performance was promising, the market is keeping a close eye on its subsequent trajectory—as the domestic competitor Eli Lilly is expected to launch its own oral weight-loss drug in the first half of 2026.

　　Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen said: “Investors want to see Novo Nordisk fully leverage its current first-mover advantage, especially in direct-to-patient channels (mainly for self-pay or cash pay patients), to narrow the huge gap with Eli Lilly in this channel in 2025.”

　　Mounting Pressure

　　Both Wegovy and Ozempic contain the active ingredient semaglutide, whose patent will expire in 2026 in markets such as Canada and Brazil. Meanwhile, the company’s largest market—the U.S.—is also facing tremendous pricing pressure. Analysts predict that after years of rapid growth, Novo Nordisk’s sales growth will slow to single digits this year.

　　Barclays analyst James Gordon pointed out before the release of the financial report that Novo Nordisk’s guidance is likely to prompt analysts to further downgrade the company’s rating, but given investors’ “strong concerns” about this year’s performance outlook, this could also be an opportunity for a market correction.

　　He also noted: “The negative impact of the guidance downgrade may be partially offset by investors buying in—as they seize the opportunity from the launch of oral Wegovy in the U.S. market, as well as the potential sales inflection point for injectable Wegovy in the U.S. this year.”

　　Over the past 18 months, Novo Nordisk’s operating pressure has continued to mount. Its U.S. competitor Eli Lilly’s weight-loss drug tirzepatide not only delivers better weight loss results than Novo Nordisk’s products, but has also overtaken Novo Nordisk in U.S. market share.

Editor: Li Tong