Is altseason finally brewing? Only if THESE 2 indicators flip first

The AI financing platform led by Jensen Huang has seen zero transactions since its high-profile launch in August. The core issue lies in Nvidia's guarantee rate of only 25%, which is significantly lower than competitor Broadcom's maximum of 72.5%, resulting in little interest from lenders. Analysts believe that, having lost its visionary leader and facing pressure from Wall Street to assume more risk, the project is unlikely to be implemented any time soon.

U.S. short-term Treasury yields have soared sharply for four consecutive trading days, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.862%, accumulating a 38.8 basis point increase—the largest four-day gain since June 2022. The 10-year yield simultaneously broke through the critical 5.10% threshold. Real interest rates have climbed as well, and the market has significantly raised its terminal rate expectations to 4.82%. An interest rate hike in December is now almost certain, while the probability of another hike in January stands at 75%.

Cisco's first-quarter revenue reached $18.5 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.40, both exceeding market expectations. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $74.8 billion-$75.8 billion, and expects AI infrastructure revenue to reach $9 billion this fiscal year, doubling from the previous year. The CEO stated that the company is in the early stages of a multi-year networking supercycle.