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Analyst: Ramadan demand and low base push up inflation, expected to narrow Indonesia's rate cut space

Analyst: Ramadan demand and low base push up inflation, expected to narrow Indonesia's rate cut space

格隆汇格隆汇2026/02/03 03:21
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Glonghui, February 3rd|Economists at Kenanga Investment Bank pointed out in a report that, due to the low base effect from last year and the expected increase in demand during Ramadan, Indonesia's inflation rate may remain high in the short term. They noted that price pressures are expected to ease starting from April. Kenanga maintains its 2026 Consumer Price Index forecast at 2.5%, unchanged, while the forecast for 2025 is 1.9%. Analysts stated that, due to rising inflation risks caused by global uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions, as well as the weakening of the Indonesian rupiah, there is now less room for further monetary easing measures this year. In addition, domestic concerns—including questions over central bank independence, the credibility of fiscal policy, and warnings from MSCI regarding data transparency and trading violations—have also intensified market pressures.
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