Why is Polymarket's $1 billion bet on tariffs the most dangerous macro signal facing cryptocurrencies and risk assets?

According to a report by Bijie Network: Prediction markets are signaling that increasing policy uncertainty will become the main driving factor in 2025, with traders betting that U.S. tariff revenues will exceed $250 billions. This panic-driven trading activity reflects how geopolitical pressures and policy volatility are becoming dominant macro variables, directly impacting leveraged assets. Recent comments regarding tariffs have already triggered large-scale forced liquidations in the cryptocurrency market, demonstrating how policy shocks can intensify leverage pressure and turn news headlines into triggers for liquidation. The reactive "TACO trading" pattern—selling when threats emerge and buying on reversals—highlights market dysfunction and often signals the arrival of volatility clusters. As the intersection of leverage and global risk, cryptocurrencies absorb such macro uncertainties faster than traditional assets, making these prediction market signals key indicators for measuring systemic stress and potential instability.