"Sister Wood"
Cathie
Wood (Cathie Wood)
recently led her team to release
"
Big Ideas 2026" , and then excitedly gave a speech to highlight the key points of the report for everyone.
"
It really feels like a hype cycle right now.
"
But
"
Sister Wood
" shifted the tone and believes that
AI the current huge capital expenditures
are not
"dark fiber"
, but
are actually
being consumed
.
"
AI is still at a very early stage, and it still has a long way to go.
"
She once again used the inspiring term "Great Acceleration".
"
Sister Wood
"
admits that capital expenditures in the technology and telecommunications industries as a percentage of GDP have already approached the highs of the previous bubble. But unlike the past when fiber optics were everywhere but underutilized, today GPUs
are still in short supply .
From a longer-term perspective, she compares this round of investment to an "infrastructure-level" cycle—just like railways, automobiles, and electricity—which could push capital expenditures up to 12% of GDP.
This structural change of "acceleration" has already shown signs in multiple directions: First, the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, with data center spending now 2.5 times higher than before the emergence of ChatGPT and expected to reach $1.4 trillion annually by 2030; second, the ongoing reconstruction of fintech, with the total value of stablecoins surpassing $300 billion, posing "dislocation and turbulence" for traditional finance; third, productivity itself is being re-evaluated, such as Tether's "output per capita" exceeding $50 million last year, reflecting new asset structures and system efficiency iterations behind such extraordinary efficiency.
So, when the outside world worries about
whether AI will "replace humans", ARK's response is more of a rhetorical question: Today, you can ask ChatGPT a question and potentially start a new business—is this not the best era for entrepreneurship?
And from multi-omics and gene editing, to nuclear power and reusable rockets, from
Robotaxi to automated logistics ... As described by "Sister Wood", it is no longer just a single main storyline, but the outline of a systemic reconstruction. When these technology platforms begin to couple with each other, growth may no longer be a gradual slope, but a stepwise leap.
Just like
"Sister Wood" herself said,
ARK 's research is more inclined to an investment banking and primary market perspective. Those early-stage industrial creativity and ideas may seem somewhat distant from the secondary market's point of view.
But how should we put it?
When we see a
70-year-old investor still following, researching, and trying to understand cutting-edge technology trends with almost "entrepreneurial passion" , maybe this
is in itself the most powerful annotation of
"long-termism".
Many of her judgments may not necessarily be recognized by the market, but her sensitivity to "changes happening" and her courage to invest capital in
technology
trends are very rare qualities.
Admire this curiosity and impulse to understand the world.Smart Investor (ID: Capital-nature) collation
"Sister Wood's" speech is shared with everyone.
AI is still at a very early stage
I want to start from a section we call
"Great Acceleration".
The core message we want to convey is:
AI is still at a very early stage and has a long way to go
.
Of course
,
it does feel like a hype cycle now, because capital expenditures in the technology and telecommunications industries as a percentage of
GDP have now almost returned to the highs of the technology and telecom bubble era. —— / Cong Ming Tou Zi Zhe / ——
Layout: Guan Hejiu Editor: Ai Xuan
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