On Polymarket, the probability of a BlackRock executive succeeding as Federal Reserve Chair is close to 50%, while the probability for former board member Kevin Warsh has dropped to 28%.
According to ChainCatcher, Polymarket data shows that regarding the successor to the Federal Reserve, BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rieder has an implied probability of 47%, higher than former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh at 28%, current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller at 9%, and White House National Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett at 8%.
The total trading volume for this event has exceeded $250 million. The chart shows that Rieder's pricing curve accelerated in January and surpassed competitor Kevin Warsh on January 23.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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