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The probability of another U.S. government shutdown this month surged to 80% on Polymarket.

The probability of another U.S. government shutdown this month surged to 80% on Polymarket.

ForesightNewsForesightNews2026/01/25 02:13
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Foresight News reported that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown occurring again this month on Polymarket has surged since 0:00 today (UTC+8), rising from less than 10% to a peak of 80%. The trading volume in this market has exceeded $4.66 million. In terms of news, U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer stated that unless Republicans agree to remove funding related to the Department of Homeland Security, he will block the passage of a large-scale appropriations bill next week.


The U.S. House of Representatives passed the bill on Thursday, after which lawmakers left Washington and will not return until after the government shutdown deadline on January 30. Any amendments to the bill, including the removal of funding for the Department of Homeland Security, would require House members to return and vote on the new bill.

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The U.S. fiscal deficit in October expanded by 42% year-on-year to $404 billion, with the current fiscal year gap expected to reach $2.2 trillion.

Data released by the U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday showed that, due to increased government spending and decreased tax revenue, the U.S. fiscal deficit reached $404 billions in October, expanding by 42% compared to the same period last year.

智通财经•2026/11/12 22:28
The U.S. fiscal deficit in October expanded by 42% year-on-year to $404 billion, with the current fiscal year gap expected to reach $2.2 trillion.