Why American Workers No Longer Benefit from Productivity Growth

Shifting Economic Landscape: Winners, Losers, and the Role of AI

In our recent Cyclical Outlook, titled “Compounding Opportunity,” we highlighted a significant divide beneath the surface of the U.S. economy’s overall strength. Shifts in government policy, coupled with rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, have led to a clear separation: major corporations investing heavily in AI are surging ahead, while a growing number of employees and their families are being left behind.

These pivotal trends are likely to persist, shaping the future of the economy, financial markets, and the political environment well into 2026 and beyond. Recent data on U.S. productivity and labor costs further underscore these developments.