The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January next year rises to 17.7%

On December 28, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year has slightly rebounded to 17.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.3%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged until March next year is 46.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 45.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 7.7%. The next two FOMC meeting dates are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026, respectively.