Bitcoin Metrics Have Changed: Analyst Reveals the Critical Level Where BTC Must Not Fall Below

A new analysis has been shared pointing to a fragile balance for Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, if the largest cryptocurrency falls below the $85,000 level, selling pressure could significantly increase and the decline could deepen.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the Net Pressure Tilt indicator, which measures the buying and selling pressure of short-term investors, has fallen to its lowest level in the last three years, reaching the 5% range. According to Adler, this level indicates a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers in the market. However, historical data shows that such equilibria are usually short-lived and shift direction quickly.

The Net Pressure Tilt indicator is calculated based on the weighted difference between selling and buying pressure among short-term investors. Positive values indicate that selling pressure outweighs buying pressure, while negative values indicate that buying pressure outweighs selling pressure. According to current data, the 24-hour Net Pressure moving average is at 4.79, while the Bitcoin price is hovering around $87,324. In contrast, the indicator’s three-year median is 73.17, suggesting that selling pressure is generally more dominant during periods of market growth.

Analysts note that the current situation shows a balance between buying and selling pressure among short-term investors. However, they point out that in past cycles, such balances often revert to selling pressure after short-term upward breakouts in bull markets. The current situation is described as more complex. The fact that the Bitcoin price has been trading approximately 13.9% below the cost basis of short-term investors for about two months indicates that this group is significantly at a loss and that the market has entered a bear phase.

According to the analyst, the critical scenario is when Bitcoin falls below the $85,000 level, causing the Net Pressure to drop below -15. Such a scenario indicates that selling pressure could accelerate and a sharper pullback could occur.