Bitcoin has continued its recent rally, hovering around the $90,000 mark with a daily surge of over 2%. However, Bitcoin has failed to regain the crucial $100,000 level last seen in October 2025.
While Bitcoin has continued to struggle amid recurring price corrections, its long-term outlook suggests the asset may face a deeper bearish cycle in the coming year.
On Monday, December 22, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez provided a new market outlook for Bitcoin, predicting that the asset will plunge much deeper before its next major long-term recovery.
Bitcoin to retest $37,500 in Q4 2026
Providing charts on Bitcoin’s quarterly performance, the analyst made his prediction based on Bitcoin’s historical price cycles, suggesting that the asset could reach a market bottom around $37,500.
While earlier predictions have suggested that 2026 may turn out to be a major bear season for the leading cryptocurrency, Martinez specified when to expect the bottoming, noting that Bitcoin has approximately 288 days remaining before that level is potentially tested.
Notably, the chart showcased by the analyst drew comparisons with previous Bitcoin bear market drawdowns, where the leading cryptocurrency had consistently retraced between 70% and 84% from cycle highs.
Historically, the Bitcoin 2018 and 2022 bear markets followed similar patterns, with steep declines eventually forming macro bottoms before strong multi-year recoveries. This history may be repeated in the coming year, per data from the analyst.
Notably, the current Bitcoin quarterly chart shows that the asset’s latest correction aligns closely with those past cycles. As such, Bitcoin could face a possible downside move of about 70% from the recent peak if history plays out again.
Per the analyst, the expected drawdown would place Bitcoin’s potential bottom near the $37,500 zone in the last quarter of 2026.
2026: not the end for Bitcoin
While the long-term Bitcoin prediction remains strongly bearish, positioning the asset on the verge of revisiting 2023 levels, the analyst further noted that such drawdowns would not mark the end for the asset but would instead propel it toward a larger rally in the long term.
Notably, bottoms like this have historically marked accumulation phases for long-term investors, as previous cycle bottoms have preceded significant bull markets. This means Bitcoin could deliver larger gains than previously seen in the years that follow.
